This is Dr. Nancy Zeliff, and we will discuss in Chapter 9 Emerging Trends and Technologies.
After reading Chapter 9 and listening to or viewing this lecture, you should be able to describe emerging trends/technologies that will impact the changing Internet. Describe emerging technologies for physiological interaction with technology. Describe emerging trends of Near Field Communication, Bluetooth, Wifi, cell phones, and RFID and define and describe emerging “pure” technologies that will impact the future.
Over the next several years, you will witness many new Internet-based trends and technologies. Personal software-as-a-service (Personal SaaS) is a delivery model for personal productivity software such as MS Office, where you pay for personal productivity software on a pay-per-use basis instead of buying the software outright-in essence, you rent the software when you want it.
Future emphasis will be on push technology. In a push technology environment, businesses and organizations come to you via technology with information, services, and product offerings based on your profile. For example your cell service pushes information to your smartphone, which is GPS enabled. When your smartphone passes a Red Box, it sends you video rental information-or pushes information to you on video rentals based upon your movie likes and dislikes and what days of the week you usually rent videos. When the next sequel to your favorite movie trilogy comes out, you receive a message on your smartphone on Thursday---so you can rent it for your usual Friday night viewing.
In the e-commerce world, business models are identified by the players of B2B (Business to Business) and G2C (Government to Consumer). Let’s bring in a third party to create an entirely new ecommerce business model. F2b2C or Factory-to-business-to Consumer is an e-commerce model in which a consumer communicates through a business on the Internet and directly provides product specifications to a factory that makes the customized and personalized product to a customer’s specifics and then ships it directly to the consumer. The business is simply an Internet intermediary that provides a communication conduit between the factory and the consumer, which is disintermediation. My younger daughter is a four-year member of the Mizzou Golden Girls, the University of Missouri’s collegiate dance team. Each year, she uses the e-business model of Factory-to-business-to Consumer to order the Nike Golden Girl specific athletic shoes. She gets online and orders direct from the factory in China. She personalize her annual shoe purchase that the squad is required to order and wear. She selects her size, the specific shoe in Mizzou gold and black, and adds a personal message or and her initials on the heel---all for the mere price of about $170 per pair! The shoes are then shipped directly to her in about 3 weeks’ time.
Voice over Internet Protocol or VoIP allows you to send voice communication over the Internet and avoid the toll charges that you would normally receive from a long distance carrier. A flat monthly service is charged for VoIP, which requires DSL or another broadband ISP. Vonage is an example of VoIP.
Web 2.0 is the so-called second generation of the Web and focuses on online collaboration, where both users and creators can modify content and customize information feeds and use other engaging Web-based services.
Web 3.0 is the third generation of the Web or is known as the Semantic Web. Semantics refers to the ability of Web technologies to interpret and understand human-generated content. Search engines will be able to better return more usable search results.
Web 3.0 technology could bring TV-quality video and 3D simulations. Augmented reality is definitely one of those technologies already available. During the Olympic swimming races, viewers could see pacing lines on the television screen showing if a swimmer was on target for the world or Olympic record pace. Televised football games show viewers the first down lines-both examples of viewing of the physical world with computer-generated layers added to it.
The e-society is here. YouTube is a major training site, let alone an entertainment site. Relationships and marriages are a result of online matchmaking services like Match.com. World breaking news is launched through social media sites. Technology is enabling business and pervading our personal lives so much that we cannot imagine a world without technology. The new technology-based dimensions of our world are creating an e-society.
Right now, our primary interfaces to a computer are physical-we use a keyboard, mouse, monitor and printer. These are physical not physiological. Physiological interfaces will capture and use your real body characteristics of voice and even your eyes.
Automatic speech recognition or ASR not only captures spoken words but also distinguishes word groupings to form sentences. Speech recognition systems such as Dragon Naturally Speaking have been used very successfully for about 20 years, but ASR is more robust.
Virtual reality is a three-dimensional simulation in which you are actively and physically participating. Special input and output devices capture your physiological movements and send physiological responses back to you. Gloves, headsets, or walkers are examples of devices. Applications other than games where virtual reality is useful is the training of airline pilots in adverse weather conditions and the training of medical personnel performing surgery on virtual cadavers. Potential virtual reality can include aroma-producing devices that secrete fluid through a mouthpiece that you have in your mouth, so you can experience tastes and smells of an event.
A CAVE or cave automatic virtual environment is a special 3-D virtual reality room that can display images of people and objects in other CAVES. These are holographic devices, which create, capture, and display images in 3-D. Examples of its implementation would be visiting friends and family without travelling---and in a much more robust environment than even Skype.
Haptic interfaces uses technology to add the sense of touch to an environment that previously only had visual and textual emphasis. Many joysticks and game controllers provide feedback to the user through vibrations, which is a haptic interface. Games are “fun” applications of haptic interfaces, but through a haptic interface, a visually impaired user can feel and read text with their fingers while interacting with a computer.
Biometrics is the use of physiological characteristics such as a fingerprint, iris, voice sound, or breath to provide identification. Custom made shoes and articles of clothing, such as wedding dresses, are made with scanning devices and in the future can be ordered online as the Mizzou Golden Girls do with their Nike made-to-order shoes through the F2b2C e-commerce model.
Biometrics are primarily used as security measures as we learned in Chapter 8. But consider the integration of biometrics with transaction processing, such as an ATM. A woman who just happens to be pregnant uses her ATM which not only requires a PIN for security but an iris scan. Pregnancy and gender of the fetus can be detected through the iris scan. So not only does she receive her cash but her receipt has a Babies R Us coupon printed on the back with a personal message that says “buy blue.” WOW-is that an invasion of privacy or just smart marketing by the bank and baby retail stores?
Biometrics is a hot topic in research circles now. A biochip when inserted into humans can block pain and help paralyzed people regain some portion of their motor skills. An implant chip is a technology-enabled microchip implanted into the human body that stores important information about you (such as medical history and your identification) and can be GPS enabled. Facial recognition software provides identification by evaluating facial characteristics and is used by law enforcement agencies.
Three examples of wireless technologies are bluetooth, wifi, and Near Field Communication. Bluetooth is short-range communication of about 30 feet and is a standard for transmitting information. Wireless headsets for smartphones are common applications of bluetooth. WiFi is usually the type of wireless communication used in computer network environments. Near field communication (NFC) is a widely adopted standard for wirelessly processing credit card transactions.
Smartphones are disruptive technologies. They have evolved from telephones one could use in their cars to hand-held models to mobile computing devices for email, video, text, and Web connectivity. Tomorrow’s smartphones may spell the end to MP3 players and land line phones and have enhanced processor capability, increased storage, and music and video enhancements. A downside to smartphones is that they are next frontier for hackers and viruses.
Radio frequency identification or RFID uses a microchip in a tag or label to store information. Information is transmitted from, or written to, the tag or label when the microchip is exposed to the correct frequency or radio waves. Toll roads have lanes through which drivers can move if they have an RFID device that automatically changes to an account as they drive down the road.
The most common implementation of RFID is the passive RFID chip that has no power source itself and sits idle until passed near a reader that emits radio waves. The antenna around the RFID chip picks up the radio waves and then sends the chip’s information to the reader. The travel and entertainment industry uses this technology within IDs and passes. Individuals are admitted to cruise ships, hotels, back stage, and other venues because of the RFID identification tags. Other applications are anti-theft car keys, library book tracking, livestock tracking, and the supply chain process for major retailers and government agencies.
Today, almost every product is identified uniquely by a UPC or universal product code. However, every like product has the same UPC and are indistinguishable. With RFID technologies, each individual piece of merchandise will have a unique EPC or electronic product code. The EPC will include the UPC but then also a unique number. Think about that....if each item in a grocery store or discount store can communicate wirelessly with the checkout system, there is no need to go through that process. You can shop, place the items in your cart and walk out the front door. The RFID system will communicate with the credit card in your wallet, tally up your bill, and charge your credit card account appropriately. When you launder your clothes that each have an RFID within its label with laundering instructions, the washing machine will not work if you have a red shirt in with your white load. What....no pink socks and underwear? Even the placement of RFID tags in foods is under review. Tags in food could notify the consumer of foods that are on food allergy lists or perhaps bad for diabetes. Tags could send nutritional information to your smartphone so you could more easily manage what you eat. Of course, there is the concern of digesting RFID tags!
Some emerging technologies have a few broad applications in numerous ways. These include nanotechnology, multistate CPUs, and holographic storage devices.
Nanotechnology is a discipline that seeks to control matter at the atomic and subatomic levels for the purpose of building devices on the same small scale. It is the exact opposite of traditional manufacturing that takes a large natural resource and makes a smaller product. For example, a large tree is whittled down to manufacture a toothpick. In nanotechnology, you start with the smallest unit and build up. You start working with atoms and build what you want. If the molecular structure of the materials used to make computer chips was changed, electronics could be as cheap and plentiful as bar codes on packaging. Analysis of patient’s DNA could be done so quickly and precisely that designer drugs would be fabricated on the fly. The changes nanotechnology will bring about technology will be unbelievable.
Right now, CPUS are binary-state (0 and 1). Multi-state CPUs will work with information represented in more than just two states-probably 10 states with each state representing a number 0-9. This will make small computers very fast. When multi-state CPUs become a reality, your computer will no longer have to go through many of the processes associated with translating characters into binary and reversing the translation process later.
Right now, storage devices store information on a two-dimensional surface but research in the holographic realm will change by creating holographic storage devices with many sides and faces. This is similar in concept to small holographic images that change the picture or image as you view the image from different angles. If and when holographic storage becomes a reality, you can store massive amounts of information on a single crystal and on several hundreds faces of that crystal.
Emerging trends and technologies are before organizations. They are exciting and promise that the future will be different and dynamic. The following are five areas to think about to help you reflect on what you’ve learned and to place that knowledge within the bigger picture. Technology is a human invention and it presents us with human, social, and personal challenges. The five areas to think about are: the necessity of technology, closing the great digital divide, technology for the betterment of society, exchanging privacy for convenience, and ethics.
Technology is a necessity. Carefully evaluate each technology and determine if it will make you more productive, enhance your personal life, enrich your learning, or move your organization in the direction of its strategic goals and initiatives. Technology is not a panacea-or a “fix all.” You cannot just choose a technology and expect it to work. Yet, you cannot ignore technology when it will really help you and your organization become more efficient, effective, and innovative.
The digital divide means the world is marked by the “haves” and the “have nots”---those having access to knowledge and those not having access to knowledge, as well as technology, computers, and the Internet. The power of technology needs to be realized worldwide. Take technology to other countries. Just as Tom shoes, takes shoes to other nations, take technology to other nations. The global one-to-one computing initiative seeks to do this. The digital divide also exists in the United States and affects varied demographic groups. Access to computers and the Internet varies among populations because of these factors: socioeconomic (which is often identified by head of household and levels of education of the head of household), availability of broadband Internet service in rural versus urban areas, and racial/ethnic groups.
The development and use of technological innovations should better society and improve the quality of life for individuals. Medical research is creating marvelous uses of technology to treat ailments and cure diseases. My neighbor has a degenerative back ailment and suffers great back pain and must use a walker to walk. She has a technological implant in her back that “collects” her pain and re-directs the pain from her brain. She reports her pain has diminished by 70 percent. My minister’s wife suffers from Parkinson’s and had severe tremors. Through “circuitry” implanted in her brain and body, the tremors are “re-routed” to where they are nearly non-existent or distinguishable. Consider the South African Olympic athlete known as the “Blade Runner” in the 2012 Summer Olympics, Oscar Pistorius, who ran on special carbon fiber blades due to double amputation of his legs as a youth. Amazing technology allowed this gifted athlete to compete with “able bodied” athletes.
Consider how much personal privacy you have given up in exchange for convenience. When you use a discount card at a retail store to take advantage of sales, the store tracks your purchasing history in great detail. They will use that information later to sell you more tailored products. Just by surfing the Web, cookies track your surfing. Information is not captured just to capture it; it’s used later---maybe to better serve you as a customer, but may be not always.
Let’s stress one more time, the importance of ethics. Even though businesses exist to make money and need money to survive, personal or business success shouldn’t come to the detriment of others. It’s quite possible to be very successful and to be very ethical.
Please pause the lecture and make some technological predictions of your own now that the course is nearly completed. Return to this lecture and the next two slides to see what the authors have predicted. There is good discussion of each predication on pages 277-278. Why not tuck your list and the list from the authors away and refer to the lists five, ten, and even fifteen years from now to see if any were realized.
The predictions from the authors include
3D and holograms - viewing interfaces will be 3-D and computers will generate holograms.
More outrageous industry transformations - Big business based on traditional models will go by the wayside. The Fortune 500 of 2020 will be drastically different than the list in 2010.
And a child shall lead them -teenagers and even pre-teens will be entrepreneurs-consider Mark Zuckerberg creating Facebook at age 20
The overnight million dollar app - an app will sell one million downloads in 24 hours-it will be the app no one can live without and probably developed by someone 20 years old or younger
IPO mania - social media and digital economy start-ups will spring up overnight and go public
Digital money - digital money will be mainstream as retailers start charging a fee when accepting cash
Web 3.0 - Web 3.0 will be more evolutionary than revolutionary
More predictions include
It won’t be Facebook or Google at the top---the hottest social media or technology will be one we haven’t seen yet
Clouds - cloud computing will be the standard software provider of all types of software and for storage
The 140-character communication standard - the standard length of a tweet will become the normal communication length
Smartphones and tablets will overtake laptops and desktops
Analytics - personalization will require that every business get in the game of analytics. Business programs at colleges will teach analytics.
Empire of one - one individual will build his/her business on the Web and will be the only employee, outsourcing everything to the cloud
How did your list of predictions compare with those of the authors? This concludes our discussion of Chapter 9.